By: Shadia Nassar – Includovate/ Principal Researcher
Mind/cognitive mapping has been a central endeavour in psychology, as researchers seek to understand the complex workings of the human brain and how we make sense of the world around us. Tolman originally defined the cognitive map as an internal representation of a specific spatial area; the term has broadened considerably and generally refers to one’s internal representation of the surrounding world. While these maps have traditionally been hand-drawn or manually entered in Excel, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) will automate this process. This blog discusses the mind map process and how its manual development is crucial for the user before explaining the changes proposed by the move to causal AI (automated mind mapping). The blog is written from a researcher’s perspective.
What is causal mapping?
Causal mapping visually represents the relationships between various factors or variables and their effects on each other. Causal mapping has roots in cognitive psychology, where researchers began using diagrams and networks to represent mental models and causal relationships. These early efforts were inspired by the work of psychologist Jean Piaget, who emphasised the importance of understanding how individuals perceive cause-and-effect relationships in their environment. He proposed that individuals go through stages of cognitive development in which they progressively develop more sophisticated ways of thinking and understanding the world.
A causal map is a model of causal relationships, in the form of a directed graph in which the items (nodes, elements ) are linked by arrows, together with translation rules that tell us how to interpret the arrows, namely that an item with one or more arrows pointing to it is in some sense causally influenced by the item(s) at the start of those arrows
(Powell, S. 2019).
As cognitive psychology evolved, so did the techniques and theories of causal mapping. Researchers began to use computer-based tools to create more sophisticated and dynamic models of causal relationships, allowing for more complex and nuanced analyses of how different factors interact with and influence each other.
Today, causal mapping has expanded beyond cognitive psychology and is widely used in various fields, including organisational development, strategic planning, and decision-making. Researchers and practitioners use causal mapping techniques to identify key drivers of behaviour, predict outcomes, and design interventions to improve performance. Causal mapping visually represents relationships between various factors or variables influencing a particular outcome or event. It involves identifying the causal links between different elements and depicting them in a structured manner, often using diagrams or graphs.
What is causal research design?
Causal research (1) is sometimes called an explanatory or analytical study. It delves into the fundamental cause-and-effect connections between two or more variables. Researchers typically observe how changes in one variable affect another related variable. Examining these relationships gives researchers valuable insights into the mechanisms that drive the phenomena they are investigating (2).
Capturing Strategic Data Using Causal Mapping
To capture strategic data using causal mapping in development projects, researchers can follow these steps:
- Identify the key variables: Identify the key variables or factors relevant to the development project. These include economic, social, political, environmental, or technological factors likely to impact the project outcomes.
- Define the relationships: Once the key variables have been identified, researchers can define the relationships between these variables. This entails determining how each variable affects or is influenced by other variables in the system.
- Construct the causal map: Researchers can construct a causal map representing the relationships between the variables using a visual tool such as a causal loop diagram or a concept map. This can be done manually or with the help of software tools such as CmapTools or Kumu.
- Validate the causal map: It is important to validate it with stakeholders or domain experts to ensure it accurately represents the system dynamics and interactions. This can also uncover any gaps or inconsistencies in the data.
- Analyse and interpret the causal map: Once validated, researchers can analyse it to identify key patterns, feedback loops, and causal relationships within the system. This can help uncover underlying mechanisms driving the project outcomes and identify potential leverage points for intervention.
Overall, the steps of causal maps help researchers to visually map out complex relationships, identify key variables, and ultimately organise their thoughts to develop theories or hypotheses that can be tested and refined through empirical research.
Causal Mapping Tools
Causal mapping tools are visual tools used to map out relationships, connections, and causes within a system or concept. These tools can be used in various research and evaluation contexts to help understand complex relationships and dynamics. These tools help researchers and practitioners think through the implications (cause and effect) of their work/ideas and test their assumptions, ultimately setting their work up successfully. Some examples of casual mapping tools include:
- Mind maps are visual diagrams representing words, ideas, tasks, or other items linked to and arranged radially around words. They usually begin with a central keyword or idea linked to related words, ideas, tasks, or other items that branch outward from the point. Mind maps are frequently used in education, business, and personal development to help organise thoughts, stimulate creativity, and improve productivity.
2. Influence diagrams: A graphical and mathematical representation of a decision situation, often used in decision analysis to represent causal relationships among variables. These diagrams show how different factors influence each other and how they ultimately impact the outcome. One example of influence diagrams in social science could be in the study of poverty. Let’s say you are trying to understand the factors contributing to poverty in a particular community. You could use an influence diagram to show how variables such as unemployment rates, education levels, access to healthcare, and social policies all interact to impact the overall poverty levels in that community.
3. Fishbone diagrams (Ishikawa or cause-and-effect diagrams): A visual tool to categorise potential causes of a problem or effect. They help identify root causes and understand the relationships between various factors that may contribute to the issue at hand. The diagram is created by drawing a horizontal line representing the problem or effect and branching off from it with several lines representing different categories of potential causes. Each category is then further broken down into specific causes. Fishbone diagrams can be used to analyse potential causes of defects in products, the healthcare sector, education, and customer service.
4. Problem tree analysis is a visual tool used to identify the root causes of a particular issue or problem. It involves breaking down a problem into its components and analysing its interconnectedness. This helps understand the problem’s underlying causes and helps find effective solutions. When analysing issues related to sectors such as gender and social norms, problem tree analysis can help uncover the underlying drivers of inequalities and discrimination. For example, in the context of gender equality, a problem tree analysis may reveal that the lack of access to education for girls is a key factor contributing to gender disparities in employment opportunities. By mapping out the causes and effects of a problem, stakeholders can identify strategic interventions to address the root causes and create lasting change.
The rise of causal AI
As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to evolve and advance, one development has been the rise of causal AI. Causal AI is a subset of AI that focuses on understanding cause-and-effect relationships within data rather than just analysing correlations. This shift towards causal reasoning has the potential to have a world-changing impact on a wide range of industries and sectors. One of the biggest advantages of causal AI is its ability to provide more accurate and reliable insights than traditional machine learning models. By understanding the underlying causes of a particular outcome, causal AI can help businesses and organisations make more informed decisions and predictions. However, there are also some potential drawbacks to the rise of causal mapping through AI. One concern is that the thinking behind a causal map is done by a machine, which reduces the user’s learning. The point of a causal map is to help the user unpack the problem they are trying to solve, putting it together in new ways to understand implications and test assumptions. Moreover (and in addition to all the ethical issues), questions remain about whether AI will create path dependencies and create stupider or smarter humans.
You are smarter than your data, data don’t understand cause and effect; humans do!
Judea Pearl
Final Thoughts
AI can revolutionise research by enhancing the speed and accuracy of data analysis, allowing researchers to think more strategically (e.g., identify causal relationships and theoretical developments). However, if AI does cause-and-effect thinking too, how will humans learn? While AI can provide valuable insights and predictions, it is important to remember that human judgement and expertise are essential for interpreting results and making informed decisions. Therefore, researchers must be mindful of AI’s limitations and the importance of combining AI-driven analysis with human judgement and experience.
Shadia Nassar is a principal researcher at Includovate With over 25 years of experience in monitoring and evaluation, focusing on gender-related issues, she is a passionate person dedicated to promoting inclusive and gender-responsive policies and practices. Her extensive background includes designing and implementing comprehensive M&E frameworks for projects across education, health, economic empowerment, governance, and social protection. She prioritizes incorporating a gender lens into her work to address the specific needs of women and marginalized groups. She has provided technical support and training to project staff, government officials, civil society organisations, and community members through her collaborative approach to enhancing gender equality outcomes. A Ph.D. holder in educational psychology from the University of Jordan, she is committed to advancing her knowledge and skills to contribute to a more equitable and inclusive world.
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